Cholera epidemics in 2010: respective roles of environment, strain changes, and human-driven dissemination

AbstractThe cholera burden has grown strikingly during the past 4 years, and has spread to countries previously spared by this disease. The current spread has proved especially violent, as illustrated by the recent deadly epidemics around the Lake Chad Basin, in East Africa, and in Haiti. This onset of severe cholera epidemics is part of the overall dynamic of the current seventh cholera pandemic, composed of successive epidemic waves. The current wave is attributable to new atypical El Tor strains, which spread from the Bay of Bengal to Papua in the east, Africa, and the Caribbean Sea in the west, and caused hundreds of thousands of cases and thousands of deaths during each of the last 4 years. The particular severity of the resulting epidemics is partially attributable to the specific characteristics of the atypical El Tor strain involved. Besides the abilty of El Tor to spread easily, this strain is associated with more severe clinical findings, because of elevated levels of toxin secretion resulting from a genetic content originating from classical strains. Conversely, recent studies of these deadly outbreaks raised hope by illustrating their relationship with human-borne dissemination rather than with the resurgence of environmental strains. As human-borne dissemination can be more easily targeted than ubiquitous environmental contamination, accurate and comprehensive epidemiological studies are essential to better understand the dynamics of the disease and to optimize future cholera responses

Field-free two-direction alignment alternation of linear molecules by elliptic laser pulses

We show that a linear molecule subjected to a short specific elliptically polarized laser field yields postpulse revivals exhibiting alignment alternatively located along the orthogonal axis and the major axis of the ellipse. The effect is experimentally demonstrated by measuring the optical Kerr effect along two different axes. The conditions ensuring an optimal field-free alternation of high alignments along both directions are derived.Comment: 5 pages, 4 color figure

Magnetic and Thermodynamic Properties of the Collective Paramagnet-Spin Liquid Pyrochlore Tb2Ti2O7

In a recent letter [Phys. Rev. Lett. {\bf 82}, 1012 (1999)] it was found that the Tb$^{3+}$ magnetic moments in the Tb$_2$Ti$_2$O$_7$ pyrochlore lattice of corner-sharing tetrahedra remain in a {\it collective paramagnetic} state down to 70mK. In this paper we present results from d.c. magnetic susceptibility, specific heat data, inelastic neutron scattering measurements, and crystal field calculations that strongly suggest that (1) the Tb$^{3+}$ ions in Tb$_2$Ti$_2$O$_7$ possess a moment of approximatively 5$\mu_{\rm B}$, and (2) the ground state $g-$tensor is extremely anisotropic below a temperature of $O(10^0)$K, with Ising-like Tb$^{3+}$ magnetic moments confined to point along a local cubic $$diagonal (e.g. towards the middle of the tetrahedron). Such a very large easy-axis Ising like anisotropy along a$$ direction dramatically reduces the frustration otherwise present in a Heisenberg pyrochlore antiferromagnet. The results presented herein underpin the conceptual difficulty in understanding the microscopic mechanism(s) responsible for Tb$_2$Ti$_2$O$_7$ failing to develop long-range order at a temperature of the order of the paramagnetic Curie-Weiss temperature $\theta_{\rm CW} \approx -10^1$K. We suggest that dipolar interactions and extra perturbative exchange coupling(s)beyond nearest-neighbors may be responsible for the lack of ordering of Tb$_2$Ti$_2$O$_7$.Comment: 8 POSTSCRIPT figures included. Submitted to Physical Review B. Contact: [email protected]

Estimation non paramétrique des quantiles de crue par la méthode des noyaux

La détermination du débit de crue d'une période de retour donnée nécessite l'estimation de la distribution des crues annuelles. L'utilisation des distributions non paramétriques - comme alternative aux lois statistiques - est examinée dans cet ouvrage. Le principal défi dans l'estimation par la méthode des noyaux réside dans le calcul du paramètre qui détermine le degré de lissage de la densité non paramétrique. Nous avons comparé plusieurs méthodes et avons retenu la méthode plug-in et la méthode des moindres carrés avec validation croisée comme les plus prometteuses.Plusieurs conclusions intéressantes ont été tirées de cette étude. Entre autres, pour l'estimation des quantiles de crue, il semble préférable de considérer des estimateurs basés directement sur la fonction de distribution plutôt que sur la fonction de densité. Une comparaison de la méthode plug-in à l'ajustement de trois lois statistiques a permis de conclure que la méthode des noyaux représente une alternative intéressante aux méthodes paramétriques traditionnelles.Traditional flood frequency analysis involves the fitting of a statistical distribution to observed annual peak flows. The choice of statistical distribution is crucial, since it can have significant impact on design flow estimates. Unfortunately, it is often difficult to determine in an objective way which distribution is the most appropriate.To avoid the inherent arbitrariness associated with the choice of distribution in parametric frequency analysis, one can employ a method based on nonparametric density estimation. Although potentially subject to larger standard error of quantile estimates, the use of nonparametric densities eliminates the need for selecting a particular distribution and the potential bias associated with a wrong choice.The kernel method is a conceptually simple approach, similar in nature to a smoothed histogram. The critical parameter in kernel estimation is the smoothing parameter that determines the degree of smoothing. Methods for estimating the smoothing parameter have already been compared in a number of statistical papers. The novelty of our work is the particular emphasis on quantile estimation, in particular the estimation of quantiles outside the range of observed data. The flood estimation problem is unique in this sense and has been the motivating factor for this study.Seven methods for estimating the smoothing parameter are compared in the paper. All methods are based on some goodness-of-fit measures. More specifically, we considered the least-squares cross-validation method, the maximum likelihood cross-validation method, Adamowski's (1985) method, a plug-in method developed by Altman and Leger (1995) and modified by the authors (Faucher et al., 2001), Breiman's goodness-of-fit criterion method (Breiman, 1977), the variable-kernel maximum likelihood method, and the variable-kernel least-squares cross-validation method.The estimation methods can be classified according to whether they are based on fixed or variable kernels, and whether they are based on the goodness-of-fit of the density function or cumulative distribution function.The quality of the different estimation methods was explored in a Monte Carlo study. Hundred (100) samples of sizes 10, 20, 50, and 100 were simulated from an LP3 distribution. The nonparametric estimation methods were then applied to each of the simulated samples, and quantiles with return period 10, 20, 50, 100, 200, and 1000 were estimated. Bias and root-mean square error of quantile estimates were the key figures used to compare methods. The results of the study can be summarized as follows :1. Comparison of kernels. The literature reports that the kernel choice is relatively unimportant compared to the choice of the smoothing parameter. To determine whether this assertion also holds in the case of the estimation of large quantiles outside the range of data, we compared six different kernel candidates. We found no major differences between the biweight, the Normal, the Epanechnikov, and the EV1 kernels. However, the rectangular and the Cauchy kernel should be avoided.2. Comparison of sample size. The quality of estimates, whether parametric or nonparametric, deteriorates as sample size decreases. To examine the degree of sensitivity to sample size, we compared estimates of the 200-year event obtained by assuming a GEV distribution and a nonparametric density estimated by maximum likelihood cross-validation. The main conclusion is that the root mean square error for the parametric model (GEV) is more sensitive to sample size than the nonparametric model. 3. Comparison of estimators of the smoothing parameter. Among the methods considered in the study, the plug-in method, developed by Altman and Leger (1995) and modified by the authors (Faucher et al. 2001), turned out to perform the best along with the least-squares cross-validation method which had a similar performance. Adamowski's method had to be excluded, because it consistently failed to converge. The methods based on variable kernels generally did not perform as well as the fixed kernel methods.4. Comparison of density-based and cumulative distribution-based methods. The only cumulative distribution-based method considered in the comparison study was the plug-in method. Adamowski's method is also based on the cumulative distribution function, but was rejected for the reasons mentioned above. Although the plug-in method did well in the comparison, it is not clear whether this can be attributed to the fact that it is based on estimation of the cumulative distribution function. However, one could hypothesize that when the objective is to estimate quantiles, a method that emphasizes the cumulative distribution function rather than the density should have certain advantages. 5. Comparison of parametric and nonparametric methods. Nonparametric methods were compared with conventional parametric methods. The LP3, the 2-parameter lognormal, and the GEV distributions were used to fit the simulated samples. It was found that nonparametric methods perform quite similarly to the parametric methods. This is a significant result, because data were generated from an LP3 distribution so one would intuitively expect the LP3 model to be superior which however was not the case. In actual applications, flood distributions are often irregular and in such cases nonparametric methods would likely be superior to parametric methods

Orientation and Alignment Echoes

We present what is probably the simplest classical system featuring the echo phenomenon - a collection of randomly oriented free rotors with dispersed rotational velocities. Following excitation by a pair of time-delayed impulsive kicks, the mean orientation/alignment of the ensemble exhibits multiple echoes and fractional echoes. We elucidate the mechanism of the echo formation by kick-induced filamentation of phase space, and provide the first experimental demonstration of classical alignment echoes in a thermal gas of CO_2 molecules excited by a pair of femtosecond laser pulses

Properties of the circumgalactic medium in cosmic ray-dominated galaxy haloes

We investigate the impact of cosmic rays (CRs) on the circumgalactic medium (CGM) in FIRE-2 simulations, for ultra-faint dwarf through Milky Way (MW)-mass haloes hosting star-forming (SF) galaxies. Our CR treatment includes injection by supernovae, anisotropic streaming and diffusion along magnetic field lines, and collisional and streaming losses, with constant parallel diffusivity κ∼3×10²⁹ cm² s⁻¹ chosen to match γ-ray observations. With this, CRs become more important at larger halo masses and lower redshifts, and dominate the pressure in the CGM in MW-mass haloes at z ≲ 1–2. The gas in these ‘CR-dominated’ haloes differs significantly from runs without CRs: the gas is primarily cool (a few ∼10⁴), and the cool phase is volume-filling and has a thermal pressure below that needed for virial or local thermal pressure balance. Ionization of the ‘low’ and ‘mid’ ions in this diffuse cool gas is dominated by photoionization, with O VI columns ≳10^(14.5) cm⁻² at distances ≳150kpc⁠. CR and thermal gas pressure are locally anticorrelated, maintaining total pressure balance, and the CGM gas density profile is determined by the balance of CR pressure gradients and gravity. Neglecting CRs, the same haloes are primarily warm/hot (⁠T≳10⁵) with thermal pressure balancing gravity, collisional ionization dominates, O VI columns are lower and Ne VIII higher, and the cool phase is confined to dense filaments in local thermal pressure equilibrium with the hot phase